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Brexit betting: Looming deadlock will hand momentum to a Peoples Vote
Over the last few extraordinary weeks, the chances about the following have risen. A ‘hard’, no deal Brexit. An extension of Article 50 beyond next March. A new Tory leader and PM. A constitutional crisis, resulting in a ‘Peoples Vote’ or another general election. Another Scottish independence referendum. Even a realignment of the UK party…
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Theresa May survives for now but can she last the year?
After an unforgettable day of political drama, Betfair markets were downgrading the likelihood of Theresa May being imminently forced out of office but her position remains perilous. The Prime Minister is rated 42% likely to leave office this year at odds of 2.4. In our tri-monthly market, July-Sept is trading at 3.5 (28%) down, from…
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Brexit protest to slash Labour’s Lewisham East majority
When the Lewisham East By-Election was announced – in light of Labour MP Heidi Alexander quitting to take a job with London Mayor Sadiq Khan – my immediate thoughts were conspiratorial. A mid-term by-election in an ultra safe Labour seat, which overwhelmingly voted Remain, offers the perfect chance to challenge Labour’s pro-Brexit stance and potentially…
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Back Gove for next Tory leader now as Brexit crisis intensifies
Today marks the one year anniversary of the General Election and what feels like the last time anything changed in UK politics. The polls are more or less identical, showing a small Conservative lead. The path of Brexit – even the government’s preferred path – is as clear as mud. The Prime Minister remains in…
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Will there be a snap election in 2018 and what happens if there is?
Inevitably, the speculation has begun. With Theresa May’s Brexit plan going nowhere as she struggles to square circles between Cabinet, Parliament and country, The Sunday Times reports that Tory MPs are gearing up for a election this autumn. The odds about 2018 have halved in our Year of Next Election market but, at odds of…
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Five takeaways from the UK local elections
Last week, I pondered how bad the latest council elections would be for the Tories. The answer is nothing like as bad as experts predicted. Rather than take a mid-term thrashing, they were tied for projected national vote share with Labour, whose 77 gains were way below the widely forecast 200 target. According to BBC…
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UK Local Elections Betting Preview
It is more or less standard for governments to struggle in mid-term, as angry voters become motivated to register a protest. That particularly applies once they’ve been elected three times and are in the midst of multiple crises. Against a backdrop of the Windrush scandal, Amber Rudd’s resignation and Cabinet and parliamentary division over Brexit,…
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How the Tory leadership race could unfold
If anyone still needs a measure to illustrate the unpredictability of politics in 2018, check out the Next Conservative and Labour Leader markets. Neither has what could be described as a hot favourite and only three candidates are trading at single figure odds. Little wonder perhaps, in light of recent upsets and grassroots uprisings, but…
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Six candidates for next UKIP leader
They may be polling below 2% and be all but wiped out in local government but you just can’t keep UKIP out of the headlines. Albeit for all the wrong reasons. With leader Henry Bolton clinging to power after an overwhelming vote of no confidence and serial resignations, a fourth leadership contest in less than…
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Should Labour be further ahead in the polls?
We may be living through a volatile, unpredictable political era but there is little evidence of it in recent opinion polls. Since last June’s election, they have moved only slightly towards Labour and another snap election would likely produce a very similar result. Such is the inertia that pundits feel compelled to comment on 1%…