-
Trump Impeachment: Senate hugely unlikely to convict
When the House voted to impeach, a paltry ten Republicans supported it…Congressmen felt too intimidated to speak out.
-
Will Latest Trump Tape Swing The Georgia Senate Run-offs?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 4th January 2001 During his five and a half year in politics, even the most committed Trump-watchers lost count of the number of shocking moments, incidents, revelations that would have destroyed anybody else’s career. He survived the Access Hollywood tapes, the Mueller investigation, impeachment, the Woodward tapes. It…
-
US Election Review – Result vindicates the betting signals
As regular readers will have noted, its been a few months since my last post. This was due to working non-stop during the US election run-in and a long overdue break once it became clear Biden had won. I wrote dozens of articles and contributed to numerous podcasts during that period for a wide variety…
-
Five Reasons Why Comparisons Between Biden And Clinton Don’t Stack Up
A critical difference with 2016 is undecideds or third parties. Their figure amounts to just 6.5% compared to 19% at this stage.
-
Avoid the Monster Trump Gamble – The Fundamental Numbers Haven’t Changed
To win again, there is no margin for error. Actually Trump needs to improve on that performance, amid less favourable conditions.
-
Where can we find reliable information on the US Election?
If the last election is any sort of guide, there will be moments, spells, of high drama. We will be bombarded by competing narratives and the truth may initially be elusive.
-
Polls dismiss Trump’s comeback narrative but will the market react?
“Most significantly, the state that has seen the worst violence in recent days shows no sign of turning towards Trump. On the day the President made his controversial visit to Wisconsin, respective surveys from Fox News (A-) and Morning Consult (B/C) recorded Biden 8% and 10%.”
-
US Election: Will protests and violence help Trump?
“One of several plausible explanations for this monster gamble is the violence in Kenosha and Portland.”
-
US Election: Trump ends convention season on a betting high
“Both previous incumbents to enjoy a ‘double convention bounce’ went on to win – George W Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2012.”
-
US Election: Kamala Harris is a risk that could backfire on Biden
Anyone labouring under the illusion that this will be an easy ride, in which her qualities are celebrated, the rationale of her arguments win out, that her character and reputation won’t be torn to shreds, has never watched a US election.