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Five ways to profit from election side markets
With nearly £90M matched already, Betfair’s Next President market is well on course to become the biggest political betting event of all-time. This main market, however, is only the tip of the iceberg. For the serious political bettor, there’s a bet to cover pretty much every angle. That includes odds on every state, the percentage…
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Debate Review: Donald Trump blows his final chance
Fighting against a backdrop of terrible polls, Donald Trump desperately needed a gamechanging, momentum-reversing performance in last night’s third and final debate. He didn’t produce it. Compared to the two previous debates and perhaps above expectations, Trump actually performed pretty well. Focus groups of undecided voters on both CNN and CBS said he edged it…
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Key States Analysis: COLORADO
Electoral College Votes: 9 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average This state perfectly demonstrates the enormous task faced by any Republican pursuing the presidency nowadays, let alone a divisive candidate like Trump. Prior to Barack Obama, Colorado was reliably red, only voting Democrat once between 1964 and 2008. Now it seems almost naturally Democrat, forming…
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Key #Election2016 States: NEW HAMPSHIRE
Electoral College Votes: 4 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average Most famous for it’s pivotal ‘first in the nation’ primary, NH is another key plank of Clinton’s firewall. Polls consistently put her ahead but it is worth remembering that she lost this primary to Bernie Sanders, whereas victory on the GOP side propelled Trump towards…
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Key #Election2016 States: PENNSYLVANIA
Electoral College Votes: 20 Latest Live Odds Realclearpolitics poll average The Keystone State is probably the most important in this year’s election, as demonstrated by the stream of recent rallies hosted by Trump on the Republican side and both Obamas for the Democrats. While Trump has never been short of doubters on his own side,…
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Updating the #Election2016 odds for RT’s Watching The Hawks!
Last week I was privileged to make my third appearance on the superb RT show “Watching the Hawks”. This time I was live in the studio, rather than via satellite link, so I got to watch a particularly interesting episode close-up. In addition to discussing the latest odds to win the presidency, distribution of electoral…
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Are Trump’s tax returns merely the first October Surprise?
No US Presidential Election would be complete without at least speculation of the infamous ‘October Surprise’. The gamechanging event, revelation or scandal that transforms the race. Just three days into the month, we already have a prime contender. On Saturday night, the US media went into a frenzy – even momentarily diverting attention from the…
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New bets added to my #Election2016 portfolio
Slowly but surely liquidity in the various election markets is improving and, as it develops, I’m building my portfolio. Following last week’s bet on Clinton Electoral College Votes, I’ve now added two more pro-Clinton positions on handicap markets, as advised on Twitter yesterday. Another #Election2016 bet: 20 units Hillary Clinton @ 1.73 for Betfair's +49.5…
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My trading plan for the electoral college
I’ve been saying for ages that the distribution of electoral college votes is my ideal strategy for the closing stretch of the election and today, I’ve published my first bet. New #Election2016 bet: Back Clinton to get 330-359 Electoral College Votes 25u @ 6 – try these 3 bookies. https://t.co/H7td3fKhUP — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) September…
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Interview with Fox Business on political betting
Earlier this month, I visited the Fox Studios to discuss the concept of political betting, past and current US elections and whether these markets represented a superior guide to predicting the result than opinion polls. Here’s the interview with Benjamin Brown. http://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/2016/09/20/place-your-bet-hillary-clinton-or-donald-trump.html