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Next Tory leader: Theresa May looks the biggest threat to Osborne
Anti-immigration speech signals the Home Secretary’s intentions After yesterday’s confident, ambitious speech to his conference, there is no way David Cameron is leaving this job early. If so, that means the betting market to succeed him is going to last until at least 2019. Comparisons with the Tony Blair/Gordon Brown succession a decade ago are…
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In order to become Tory leader, Osborne must defy betting history
No early favourite has ever won a Conservative Party leadership contest Since masterminding a famous election victory, George Osborne has soared in the betting to be the Next Conservative Party leader. From 9.4 (11%) when I tipped him in March, the Chancellor is now the clear 2.8 favourite, rated a 35% chance. However political historians will confirm that…
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GOP outsiders remain cheap bet or trading options
The gap between polls and punditry has never been greater In what seems like the most open, uncertain election of all-time; whose judgement should we most trust? Answer that question and there are fortunes to be won predicting the result. If only it were that straightforward! Right now, all the usual indicators are pointing in different…
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Is Romney right to say a mainstream Republican will emerge?
What if too many candidates split the ‘mainstream’ vote? Having contested the last two nomination processes through to the death, few people better understand what it will take to win this year’s Republican race than Mitt Romney. Romney weighed in with his assessment of the current contest today and, largely, I agree with his analysis.…