This was a most enjoyable interview, for the excellent show :”Watching the Hawks” on RT America. Here, I discuss the scale of betting on the 2016 US Election, along with the Democrat and Republican races with Tyler Ventura and Tabetha Wallace.
Archives for February 2016
Politico Series Part 3: Looking ahead to New Hampshire
This piece was written a few days before the New Hampshire Primary. Looking back at some successful bets and my experiences in Iowa. I update market movements and developments in the race.
However it must be said, I didn’t see Donald Trump winning NH by anything like his eventual margin!
Two new bets, plus trading tips: How caution and hedging make for good strategy.
On this huge day in the US election cycle, I make absolutely no apology for keeping stakes small and literally hedging my bets. Anything less would be irresponsible, given the treacherous difficulty in predicting this New Hampshire Primary. The Republican side at least - where the interesting betting lies. I’m quite sure that the market is correct to make Bernie Sanders a 97% chance - the effects of which I’ll deal with shortly.
We have one bet on the Republican race, which I’ve all but given up on already. From carrying great momentum away from Iowa, Marco Rubio may have blown everything in one debate. The problem with being a candidate whose reputation was built in the media - driven by image, fluency and therefore perceived electability - is that it can all disintegrate so quickly. What the media creates, the media can destroy.
In being so brutally, verbally mauled by Chris Christie, the Rubio brand became everything his detractors claimed. A lightweight, inexperienced, opportunistic career politician who repeats the same memorised lines on a loop. See this epic series of tweets from the wise Republican commentator David Frum.
Rubio can of course come back, but it is too late for New Hampshire and our four unit bet, and he is a bit damaged ahead of the longer race. My feeling is the likeliest threat to Donald Trump is John Kasich, for whom second or better would take his challenge up several gears and block a path for Rubio to sew up the establishment vote. A bunched finish would also put paid to Jeb Bush quitting any time soon - something Rubio needs urgently.
So far as the bigger picture is concerned, note that we’ve got a substantial risk-free position on both men. As we have on my main pick Ted Cruz, about whom we’ve already secured a small profit.
Certainly in the cases of Cruz and Rubio, laying back earlier has paid dividends as both have drifted since. In both cases, my analysis was hit by a sudden, unexpected development. Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Donald Trump freaked me, putting what seemed an easy win Iowa in jeopardy. When his odds drifted right out before eventually upsetting the odds there, at least I was covered .
Rubio’s disaster was also unforeseen, but matters not because we’ve covered the stake. Likewise. If Kasich bombs tonight and quits the race, there will be no damage done.
The great thing is that we are now free to go back in again, which is what I’m doing on Cruz. I am much more confident now about him than when laying at 6.0, yet he’s actually a bigger price at 8.0.
In my view, Cruz is the ultimate benficiary of Rubio’s woes. His biggest long-term rival is damaged, and the establishment lane continue to carve each other up. Cruz has no expectations in New Hampshire, yet it isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that he beats the establishment quartet.
His time comes in a few weeks when the race travels South, for Super Tuesday. My long-range prediction that Cruz would lead after that is on course.
I remain a huge sceptic of Donald Trump and am confident that if it comes down to the pair of them, Cruz wins. Indeed I believe Trump will struggle to win any 2 or 3 man races once the field winnows.
So I’ve just gone in again on Cruz at 8.0. I feel certain these odds will be shorter further down the track, and he’s now a massive winner for the book, securing nearly 400 units profit - leaving plenty to cash in later, if his odds indeed shorten.
Placed new bet overnight: 20u Ted Cruz @ 8.0 for GOP Nominee. Will blog shortly, also re yesterday's 10u Bernie Sanders @ 14.0 for President
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) February 9, 2016
The same plan applies to the Democrat race. Having taken a small 6 unit loss on Clinton, we are reliant on the 195 unit risk-free position on Sanders becoming president. That was secured by laying our stake back at 11, but he’s now drifted to 14, for reasons that totally escape me.
Sanders has momentum after a good Iowa result, and the money to stay in this race. I don’t believe he’ll win the nomination but odds of 5.5 are about right. If so, as before, his odds for the presidency are too big, as explained when having the initial bet. Therefore, as advised on Twitter yesterday, I’ve gone in again.
New bet: 10 units @BernieSanders for Next President @ 14. Adding to existing risk-free bet to win 195u. Must shorten post #NHPrimary win.
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) February 8, 2016
I would price Sanders at about 10, and expect him to reach that after New Hampshire. Watch out then for a swift cover bet, or cash out. That could be within a few days, as might the Cruz bet.
I appreciate this is a complex trading plan. Feel free to post any questions or send a message on Twitter to @paulmotty.
Finally, for the record, my exact prediction for New Hampshire:
GOP - Trump 24%, Kasich 20%, Cruz 15%, Bush 14%, Rubio 14%, Christie 8%, Fiorina 3%, Carson 2%.
DEM - Sanders 58, Clinton 42.
GOPDebate verdict: Rubio the latest victim of GOP cage fight
I’ve observed before how the size and brutal nature of the race to be GOP nominee is doing the party no favours, damaging one candidate after another. In the final debate before Tuesday’s pivotal New Hampshire Primary, the last undamaged figure took a beating.
My main sentiment this morning is relief that I’ve only staked four units on Marco Rubio to win NH and laid back the 25 units staked last week for the Presidency. For while there was no clear winner, Rubio was the clear loser.
It was obvious he would be attacked, less so that he would respond so weakly, in particular to Chris Christie’s assault. Rubio came off looking exactly like the scripted, lightweight that his detractors claim. According to Frank Luntz - the focus group guru with a tremendous record in Anglo-US politics - Rubio took a beating. After the previous debate, Luntz scored Rubio the runaway winner.
Rubio took a beating tonight. He better hope Google searches don't make NH voters change their minds before Tuesday. https://t.co/iF1YHXM48S
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) February 7, 2016
Worse, all of Rubio’s rivals in the mainstream, establishment lane did well. None of Christie, Jeb Bush or John Kasich look like the eventual nominee, but all could eat into Rubio’s share, just when a big performance in New Hampshire is required to sustain momentum.
Ultimately, the real winners last night were Cruz and Donald Trump, who emerged unscathed, while watching the establishment tear each other apart.
Considering Trump is the NH front-runner, his easy ride was both surprising and significant. Historically, the GOP nominee wins either Iowa or New Hampshire. Granted, this year seems different, but the establishment may come to regret last night. Rubio was and remains their best hope.
I won’t be backing him at odds-on, but Trump must now look the likeliest winner in NH. 25% could do it, again unlike recent NH results where 35% has been a minimum.
Taking the pulse here on the ground, talking to GOP voters, virtually everyone seems undecided. Last night is unlikely to have made their choice any clearer.
***
One new bet. As advised on Twitter earlier, I’ve laid back my 3 unit outstanding risk on John Kasich.
New cover bet (not advised as opening trade!): Laid John Kasich 3u @ 50 for GOP Nominee, covering stake on earlier bet @ 240 for president
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) February 7, 2016
Note I’ve laid him in the nominee market, rather than the Presidency, where I’ve already taken odds of 240. Why? Simply, the maths are wrong. At 150 in the latter compared to 50 in the nominee market, the implication is he’d only stand a 33% chance in the General Election.
This is wrong! I doubt Kasich will be the GOP candidate but if he were, the Governor if key swing state Ohio would hold, by my assessment a 50/50 chance at least.
Will a late Rubio surge deny Trump again?
Following yesterday’s advised bet on Twitter to back Marco Rubio to win New Hampshire, here’s a detailed explanation.
New bet: 4 units on @marcorubio to win New Hampshire @ 4.0 (3 to 1). Will blog asap, may add more in coming days.
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) February 5, 2016
The political betting story of this past week has concerned Marco-mentum and the dramatic transformation of the race to be the Republican Nominee.
While an intriguing Democrat contest between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders has remained static in betting terms, money has poured in for Marco Rubio on the GOP side. The Florida Senator’s odds have shrunk from 3.5 to 1.75 for the nomination, 8.4 to 3.9 to become Next President. In percentage terms, he is now rated the highest of any Republican in this election to date, at 57 and 26% respectively.
Yet in order to achieve those goals, he will either need to upset the odds in Tuesday’s pivotal New Hampshire Primary, or defy a famous long-standing trend in U.S. politics. For no Republican nominee in the modern era failed to win either Iowa or New Hampshire and, having only finished third in the former last Monday, the current market rates him only 25% likely to win the latter, at odds of 4.0.
Iowa Caucuses night on ABC - WOI TV
Normally on this night, I would have been sat at home in the UK, up through the night, watching the results on TV whilst trading the race odds in-running. This time around, my first election night in the USA, I was invited to discuss political betting on the live results show of ABC’s Iowa affiliate WOI-TV.
Here’s my interview with Sabrina Ahmed and Tim Seaman.
Politico series part 2: Looking ahead to Iowa
An Election Gambler Predicts Iowa
This piece, from January 2016, details my updated thoughts, bets and analysis in the run-up to the Iowa Caucuses.
At the time, Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Donald Trump threatened to derail my long-term betting plan on Ted Cruz. Happily I stuck to my guns and opposed Trump once he had become odds-on favourite.
Click here to read the full article for @politico
Politico series part 1: Predicting the race ahead!
Why I’ve got money on Cruz instead of Trump.
Throughout my US Election Tour, I’m writing a series for Politico Magazine, detailing and updating my positions, plus analysing the trajectory of the race.
First, from December, here’s my original wide-ranging predictions for 2016, along with some background to the concept of political betting, my personal story and plans.
Click here to read the full article for @politico.
New bet: Rubio stake covered, leaving big risk-free bet
One new position to report, as advised on Twitter yesterday. I’ve laid back the 25 units stake from Saturday’s bet on Marco Rubio to be Next President.
New bet: I've laid the 25 unit stake back of previous Marco Rubio for president bet at 4.2. Leaves risk free bet to win 105 units.
— Political Gambler (@paulmotty) February 2, 2016
As that tweet explains, the new bet removes all the risk out of that position, leaving a free bet to win 105 units if Rubio becomes the President. Given that I now see the GOP race as a two-man affair between Rubio and Ted Cruz, this sets up a great cover for my substantial position on the latter.
Rubio all the rage after Trump supporters fail to turn up
Yet again, opinion polls have been proved spectacularly wrong in a major political betting event. Yet again, odds-on backers were taught a lesson about trying to buy money in US primary elections.
Monday’s Iowa Caucuses turned the Republican Nomination race on it’s head and, after a photo-finish, set the Democrat race up for a fascinating duel.
After trading odds-on for the nomination, a defeated Donald Trump has ceded favouritism to Marco Rubio, who at odds of 1.73 is now rated 57% likely to be the GOP candidate in November’s General Election. That despite only finishing third to Ted Cruz, who is still surprisingly weak at 7.0 (14%).
