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Four takeaways from the UK General Election
This article first appeared on 16th December, for betting.betfair.com The Exit Poll emerges triumphant but is imperfect This may sound strange, having spent the last six weeks totally immersed in it, but this was quite a boring election. At least from a betting perspective. Once the Tories opened up an early lead, victory never looked…
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UK General Election Analysis
This piece was first published on Tuesday 10th December for gambling.com In previewing this general election over several months, I’ve put up two positions available on the political betting sites – Conservatives to win most seats at 4-5, No Overall Majority at 4-6. According to the betting, the first is nailed on at 1-20 with BetVictor, with the…
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How will the Liberal Democrats fare?
If I could take back one recent prediction, it regards Jo Swinson and the Lib Dems. When this campaign started, I thought they would benefit from extra exposure, particularly for their Revoke stance on Brexit – divisive for sure, but clearer than Labour’s muddled offering. 20-25% seemed realistic. As it transpires, the Lib Dem in the last…
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UK General Election: How will the Conservatives fare?
This article first appeared at gambling.com on November 27th 2019 There are numerous ways to get involved in political betting in an election, covering just about every angle of each party’s performance. But what is the best way to bet on a party you expect to go well? Take the example of the front-runners in the polls.…
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UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 9 – How many of these top-ten SNP targets will fall?
Stirling Click here for latest live odds Stirling voted for different parties in each of the last three elections and was a particularly impressive gain for the Tories in 2017, who were buoyant at that time under Ruth Davidson. However with the latest Scottish poll projecting 5% swing from CON-SNP since 2017, the 158 Tory…
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How to bet on the 2019 UK General Election
Back in March, I recommended a bet on the UK holding a General Election in 2019 at odds of +176 (7/4). That bet went to the wire before ultimately winning – the election will be held in less than two weeks, on December 12. As always it is a huge betting heat, involving hundreds of different markets.…
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UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 8
Southampton Itchen Click here for latest live odds Buoyed no doubt by a third of the constituency being aged 18-34, Labour came within 331 votes of an upset here in 2017. While polls show significant national swing against them since, gaining it is not beyond them, especially if the rise in youth registration translates into…
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UK General Election: Overview and betting strategy
This article first appeared at The Hub, on Monday 25th November Last month, I explained how the United Kingdom’s Brexit impasse had prompted a General Election, scheduled for 12th December. Now, halfway through the campaign, let’s consider the hundreds of markets available on Betfair. All signals point towards a thumping Conservative win. They are between…
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UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 7
Bristol North West Click here for latest live odds This constituency should act as a warning to those predicting huge Tory majorities. It is Labour’s 41st most vulnerable to a Tory takeover but they should have high hopes of retaining it even on a terrible night. 26% of the population are under 35 and the…
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General Election Constituency Guide Part 2: The ten most vulnerable Labour seats to a Tory advance
Kensington Click here for latest live odds Scene of a famous upset in 2017, Kensington is one of the most exciting seats of this election. Labour’s majority is a miniscule 20 but the Tories are by no means certain to win, despite their improved national position. Former Tory minister Sam Gwimah – who quit over…