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An Avalance of Scandal Could Bury Trump
Trump is in very serious trouble…Both he and down-ballot Republicans are staring at catastrophic defeat.
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Extensive Interview on the 2020 US Election With Betfair Australia
“Part 4 goes deep on the 2020 Election. Why I’m backing Biden and in which states he is particularly fancied”.
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The Electoral Map Looks Bad For Trump – Here’s How To Play It
“Six months out from polling day, the picture for the incumbent is not promising.”
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US Election: If not Trump versus Biden, then whom?
“This cycle has been rife with rumours of a Democrat fix for months. That a brokered convention would result in the DNC imposing somebody who hadn’t even entered the primaries.”
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US Election: Four worrying signals for Donald Trump
“What is clear is that picking fights with state governors such as Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer is counter to majority opinion in individual states. So too the anti-lockdown protests from his supporters.”
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Who Should We Follow in 2020 – Polls or Betting Markets?
“We are still around two hundred days out so plenty can change. However right now, there is a vast disparity between what the polls imply and the weight of money in betting markets.”
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How Political Betting Went Global During the Trump Era
The US Election is a huge betting market, lasting well over a year. With sports canceled amid the coronavirus, the 2020 Presidental Election may well be the biggest single betting event of the year. To many Americans, November’s general election feels like one of the most critical moments in the history of the Republic. The…
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US Election: Biden will pick a woman but beware the Clinton hype
This piece first appeared at gamblerspick.com on Monday 17th March 2020 A fortnight ago, we discussed how the race to be the Democrat nominee in November’s US General Election was developing ahead of the biggest single day of primary season, into a straight choice between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden – as the latter was rapidly hoovering…
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2020 US Election – Could Donald Trump be replaced on the GOP ticket?
Donald Trump is weakening on Betfair’s 2020 US Election markets. From a low of 1.98 he’s out to 2.24 in the wake of atrocious polls and ever more erratic behaviour. There’s also a minor move against him to be the Republican Nominee, from 1.08 to 1.14. Granted, these are lower odds than the levels I’ve…
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Four reasons why you shouldn’t bet on Bernie Sanders for 2020
This piece is from a fortnight ago. Bernie Sanders best odds are now 10/1 for the presidency and 11/2 for the Democrat nomination. All the arguments against still apply! A frequent political betting mistake is to refight the previous election. To assume the dynamics will be replicated. That the narrative which worked previously will remain…