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General Election Constituency Guide Part 1: Ten Tory seats that could fall to the Lib Dems
Richmond Park Click here for latest live odds Considering the Lib Dems are polling at twice the total they achieved in 2017, failure to win this top target would be catastrophic. Richmond Park is a wealthy constituency on the edges of West London that voted by 71/29 for Remain in 2016. It has transferred between…
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UK General Election Betting – Too early to assume Farage has landed a decisive blow
The last five years of madness have seen one political betting upset after another. One month out from the election, outsider backers have another to consider. The Conservatives are available to lay at just [1.07] to win Most Seats. Labour are 18.0 to back. The reasons are obvious. They’re double-digits behind in the polls and,…
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Why this is the most exciting and unpredictable General Election ever
This article was first published on Thursday 6th November for betting.betfair.com. If the first day is any sort of guide, we are set for another extraordinary election campaign, packed with drama and uncertainty. Boris Johnson’s Conservatives may appear – according to the polls – to be storming towards another term and perhaps a majority, but…
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UK General Election: Seven known unknowns heading into the campaign
This article first appeared on 4th November 2019, at betting.betfair.com Everything about the Brexit Party The idea of a formal pact between the Tories and Brexit Party looks doomed after the latter confirmed their intention to fight every constituency. It remains to be seen whether an informal pact, where they target Labour-held Leave seats that…
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General Election Preview – Boris poised to batter split opposition
This article first appeared at gambling.com on 2nd November 2019. Whilst the analysis still applies, I must update developments. I’ve added the following two bets which counter-act the No Overall Majority position. (In a dream scenario, both the Tory seats bet and No Overall Majority could win!) Also, the Brexit Party are set to run…
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How Brexit Ends – Two Scenarios
When last updating the Brexit situation and betting in September, British politics was paralysed over a process that has lasted more than three years. Guess what? It still is, although the endgame is now in sight. The most immediate, perilous problem – a chaotic exit from the European Union on October 31st, without a deal…
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A December general election could mark the demise of Remainer resistance
This article first appeared yesterday, 29th October 2019, at betting.betfair.com The speculation is all but over – there will be a general election in December. The exact date will be confirmed this afternoon. A market that has seen various different months and years trade at odds-on throughout this chaotic Brexit process is finally all but…
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Brexit betting – A deal is done but will parliament vote for it?
This piece was first published at betting.betfair on October 17th, 2019 It will come as no surprise to anyone that various Betfair politics markets have been going wild this morning amid the fast moving events in Brussels. Brexit by October 31, for example, has been backed in from around 4.5 to shorter than 3.0. First,…
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Why its time to bet against Brexit
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on Thursday 10th October. If we believe the media speculation, I may have underestimated a chance of Boris Johnson securing a Brexit deal. Nevertheless, even a deal would in my view only get through parliament now if a confirmatory referendum is attached. That eventuality lies behind the recommended bet…
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Brexit Latest – The Imminent Election is Anything But Predictable
The pretence is already over. Less than a week after Boris Johnson unveiled his new plan for a Brexit deal, it is in tatters. In line with the strategy discussed many times in recent months, the British government and the EU are at loggerheads. .@BorisJohnson, what’s at stake is not winning some stupid blame game.…