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Clive Lewis poised as punters back Corbyn for early exit
Yesterday, anticipating Clive Lewis’ resignation from Labour’s Shadow Cabinet, I advised a new bet on the Norwich South MP at 8/1, following on from much earlier advice at 25/1. Today’s article discusses his prospects and the wider Labour crisis. New bet in light of looming Labour drama: Backed Clive Lewis 20 units @ 8-1…
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Corbyn crisis as UKIP assume Stoke favouritism
Earlier, I announced three new bets regarding the two forthcoming by-elections and on Jeremy Corbyn’s future. The piece below explores the two contests and wider implications for Labour. 2 new by-election bets: Backed UKIP 20 units @ Evens for Stoke; Laid (opposed) Labour 15 units @ 3.1 for Copeland. — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) January 26,…
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Five big political betting stories to follow in 2017
The Jeremy Corbyn saga continues Following the biggest ever year in political betting history, dominated by Brexit and Donald Trump, there is plenty of scope for world-changing drama in 2017. As discussed below, there are three major European elections with profound implications for the continent. However in terms of providing betting activity throughout the whole…
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Could Copeland be a tipping point for Corbyn?
Compared to Brexit or a Donald Trump presidency, the fate of the increasingly irrelevant Labour Party may seem like small beer. Nevertheless, the rise and widely predicted, pending fall of Jeremy Corbyn continues to compete for headlines and provide plenty of betting activity. Despite defying the odds, media derision and vitriol from most of his…
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Labour’s suicidal civil war will escalate, not end after Corbyn’s victory
This week, the result of the Labour leadership contest will be announced. The market rates Jeremy Corbyn overwhelming 98% favourite to win at 1.02 but, as announced on Twitter last week, I’m taking no chances and took my 22 unit profit when the odds went to 1.04. Why take the risk when there are party…
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Where are the Labour heavyweights?
When Labour last had a leadership contest, I successfully predicted Jeremy Corbyn at 24-1 for various reasons. One particularly stood out. The three ‘establishment’ candidates were terrible. In the weeks leading up to Corbyn’s surprise entry, online campaigns were launched to find a better candidate – Lisa Nandy and Keir Starmer for example. Neither took…
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Portfolio updates for Brexit, Tory & Labour markets
At the end of a week which, I’m sure we can all agree was like no other any Brit can remember, let’s settle up and review our various positions and the situation moving forward. First, the good news. Brexit worked out very well. The published portfolio yielded 76 units profit and after two in-play cover…
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Who would replace Jeremy Corbyn?
As the Brexit fallout continues to reverberate through British politics, the Labour Party stands on the brink of a destructive, potentially life-threatening civil war. On the latest count, 21 Shadow Cabinet members have resigned and a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn seems certain to trigger a leadership contest. This morning, the Labour leader…
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As REMAIN strengthens, will the market be proved right again?
It would appear that, three days out from the EU Membership Referendum, the market is taking a definitive view. REMAIN has never ceded favouritism but, in the middle of last week, looked as though it might. However a slew of positive polling news for REMAIN and a popular sense that the mood was inching back…
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Brexit update: Time to cover on Leave
Following weeks of big stakes on betting markets without that much volatility, exciting things are definitely afoot. Polls clearly identify a shift in favour of LEAVE and, despite daily waves of resistance, it is moving closer by the minute to REMAIN, the longstanding favourite. This is a very positive development for my various betting positions,…