-
Newport West By-Election Betting Preview
This article was first published on March 22nd, for gambling.com In this remarkable era for political betting, the word ‘certainty’ should be used with extreme caution. Nevertheless, it is hard to construct an argument for how taking Betway’s 1/6 about Labour winning the Newport West By-election won’t yield a swift 16% profit. Scheduled for April 4th, the by-election…
-
Michael Gove’s plans are falling into place
This article was first written on 25th March 2019 for betting.betfair.com If anyone was still in doubt that Brexit is, fundamentally, a Conservative Party soap opera, the weekend’s events surely confirmed it. As voices from across the political spectrum talked of ‘national crisis and ‘humiliation’, the Tory civil war intensified. Various ministers linked with looming…
-
Was latest humiliation Theresa May’s last stand?
This article was first published on March 13th, for betting.betfair.com For a strange, brief moment yesterday, amid predictable hype of a last minute gamechanger in Theresa May’s Brexit negotiations, a serious gamble on Theresa May’s EU Withdrawal Agreement passing gained momentum. As it turned out, the PM’s late dash was in vain, and very little…
-
After Bercow intervention, is Brexit heading for the long grass?
This article was written on March 19th 2019, for betting.betfair.com The most unpredictable process in political history just took another remarkable turn. 11 days before the UK is scheduled to leave the EU, the Speaker of the House of Commons has sparked a constitutional crisis by blowing up the government’s strategy. Literally nobody is sure…
-
Delayed or not, a no deal Brexit remains highly plausible
This piece was first published on 5th March 2019 The chances of the UK leaving the European Union without a deal in 25 days time remain extremely low, according to Betfair markets. That dramatic outcome can be backed at 7.8 – equivalent to 13%. At 5.6 (18%), an on-time Brexit is only rated slightly likelier.…
-
Delayed or not, a no deal Brexit remains highly plausible
This piece was first published on March 5th, 2019 The chances of the UK leaving the European Union without a deal in 25 days time remain extremely low, according to Betfair markets. That dramatic outcome can be backed at 7.8 – equivalent to 13%. At 5.6 (18%), an on-time Brexit is only rated slightly likelier.…
-
Labour would emerge stronger from TIG split if Corbyn goes
This article was first published on February 25th, 2019 It is way too early to draw solid conclusions about The Independent Group. It isn’t yet a party and, despite plenty of coverage, most voters are probably still figuring out who they are. Their prospects and the wider effects remain an unpredictable, fast developing process. Nevertheless,…
-
How will The Independent Group fare?
This article was first published on February 18th 2019, for www.betting.betfair.com It can’t be quite described as another political earthquake, given that it has been the subject of speculation for years and intensely in recent days. Nevertheless, another week in UK politics has started with a bombshell. Seven Labour MPs have quit the party and…
-
Four scenarios that could produce a snap general election
This piece was first published on February 28th 2019 for www.casino.org Last month, I explained how Brexit – and the convoluted parliamentary process of delivering it – was generating countless political betting markets. With just 39 days until the UK is scheduled to leave the EU, nobody is any clearer how or if it will happen…
-
Next Conservative Party Leader – The Top Ten Rankings
I first wrote this piece six weeks ago. All the rankings and reasoning still apply! Following the legalisation of betting shops in the UK, the first political market to capture public attention was the 1963 contest to become the next Conservative Leader. The favourite Rab Butler was turned over by Alex Douglas-Home – starting a…