We may have a new PM, Cabinet, fear of national meltdown and much talk of urgency, but the fundamentals of British politics haven’t changed. The clock towards a no deal Brexit is ticking, politicians and journalists are locked in discussion about how to prevent it. A good time to update my scenarios piece from last month.
Markets doubt Brexit happens on time
All signals strongly suggest Boris Johnson will pin his entire reputation on delivering Brexit by 31st October. His Cabinet and advisors are equally purist on the subject. Nobody expects a deal with the EU, although one can never rule out some last-minute mini-deals in order to avert chaos.
Despite the adamance of the government, No Deal in 2019 is still odds-against on Betfair – the latest odds are [2.6], equivalent to a 38% likelihood. Leaving by October 31st via any means is [2.3] (43%).
Plenty of punters evidently believe either the EU will blink, a deal that very few believe in will finally get through parliament, or that opponents of no deal will find a way to block it.
Is Corbyn letter a gamechanger?
On that score, we are slightly clearer about what comes next, after Jeremy Corbyn published his letter to the other leaders of no-deal parties.
I've written to the leaders of other political parties and senior backbenchers from across Parliament to lay out my plan to stop a disastrous No Deal Brexit and let the people decide the future of our country. pic.twitter.com/Jz1MjXCrqk
— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) August 14, 2019
When parliament resumes, Labour will call a Vote of No Confidence in the government. This is now rated 90% likely to happen in 2019 and probably under-estimated at that. That vote is expected to pass.
The government’s majority is one, or three if including Charles Elphicke MP – who has lost the Tory whip whilst awaiting trial for sexual assault. With defections the majority will disappear over the summer and it now seems sure that Tory rebels will at least fulfil the first task required to block no deal – bring down their own government.